Tagged: Pirates

Rotation Picks

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I started the last entry
with my preseason playoff picks, but now it is time for something a little more
hardcore.

 

Below are
my picks, not predictions, for each big league team’s 2009 starting
rotation. 

 

Toronto
  1. Roy Halladay
  2. Jesse Litsch
  3. David Purcey

  4. Casey Janssen
  1. Bryan Bullington

 

Baltimore
  1. Jeremy Guthrie
  2. Koji Uehara
  3. Rich Hill
  4. Radhames Liz
  5. David Pauley

 

Tampa Bay
  1. Scott Kazmir
  2. James Shields
  3. Matt Garza
  4. Andy Sonnanstine
  5. Jeff Neimann

 

Boston
  1. Josh Beckett
  2. Jon Lester
  3. Daisuke Matsuzaka
  4. Tim Wakefield
  5. Clay Buchholz

 

New York
  1. CC Sabathia
  2. Chien-Ming Wang
  3. A.J. Burnett
  4. Andy Pettitte
  5. Joba Chamberlain

 

Cleveland
  1. Cliff Lee
  2. Fausto Carmona
  3. Anthony Reyes
  4. Aaron Laffey
  5. Jeremy Sowers

 

Kansas City
  1. Zack Greinke
  2. Gil Meche
  3. Kyle Davies
  4. Luke Hochevar
  5. Brian Bannister

 

Detroit
  1. Jeremy Bonderman
  2. Justin Verlander
  3. Armando Galarraga
  4. Edwin Jackson
  5. Chris Lambert

 

Minnesota

  1. Scott Baker
  2. Kevin Slowey
  3. Francisco Liriano
  4. Kevin Blackburn
  5. Glen Perkins

 

Chicago

  1. Mark Buehrle
  2. John Danks
  3. Gavin Floyd
  4. Jose Contreras
  5. Clayton Richard

 

Los Angeles
  1. John Lackey
  2. Ervin Santana
  3. Joe Saunders
  4. Jered Weaver
  5. Anthony Ortega


Oakland
  1. Justin Duchscherer
  2. Dana Eveland
  3. Dallas Braden
  4. Sean Gallagher
  5. Gio Gonzalez

 

Seattle
  1. Felix Hernandez
  2. Eric Bedard
  3. Jarrod Washburn
  4. Garrett Olson
  5. Ryan Rowland-Smith

 

Texas
  1. Kevin Millwood
  2. Vicente Padilla
  3. Brandon McCarthy
  4. Matt Harrison
  5. Doug Mathis

 

Atlanta
  1. Derek Lowe
  2. Jair Jurrjens
  3. Javier Vasquez
  4. Kenshin Kawakami
  5. Jo-Jo Reyes

 

Florida
  1. Josh Johnson
  2. Ricky Nolasco
  3. Chris Volstad
  4. Anibal Sanchez
  5. Andrew Miller

 

New York
  1. Johan Santana
  2. John Maine
  3. Mike Pelfrey
  4. Oliver Perez
  5. Tim Redding

 

Philadelphia
  1. Cole Hamels
  2. Brett Myers
  3. Jamie Moyer
  4. Joe Blanton
  5. J.A. Happ

 

Washington
  1. John Lannan
  2. Scott Olsen
  3. Shawn Hill
  4. Collin Balester
  5. Shairon Martis

 

Houston
  1. Roy Oswalt
  2. Wandy Rodriguez
  3. Mike Hampton
  4. Brian Moehler
  5. Brandon Backe

 

Milwaukee
  1. Yovani Gallardo
  2. Dave Bush
  3. Braden Looper
  4. Manny Parra
  5. Jeff Suppan

 

St. Louis
  1. Adam Wainwright
  2. Kyle Lohse
  3. Chris Carpenter
  4. Todd Wellemeyer
  5. Mitchell Boggs

 

Chicago
  1. Carlos Zambrano
  2. Ryan Dempster
  3. Rich Harden
  4. Ted Lilly
  5. Sean Marshall

 

Pittsburgh
  1. Paul Maholm
  2. Ian Snell
  3. Tom Gorzelanny
  4. Zach Duke
  5. Jeff Karstens

 

Cincinnati
  1. Edinson Volquez
  2. Aaron Harang
  3. Johnny Cueto
  4. Bronson Arroyo
  5. Homer Bailey

 

Arizona
  1. Brandon Webb
  2. Danny Haren
  3. Doug Davis
  4. Max Scherzer
  5. Jon Garland

 

Los Angeles
  1. Chad Billingsley
  2. Hiroki Kuroda
  3. Clayton Kershaw
  4. Randy Wolf
  5. James McDonald

 

San Francisco
  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Matt Cain
  3. Barry Zito
  4. Randy Johnson
  5. Jonathan Sanchez

 

San Diego
  1. Jake Peavy
  2. Chris Young
  3. Josh Geer
  4. Cha Seung Baek
  5. Chad Reineke

 

Colorado
  1. Aaron Cook
  2. Ubaldo Jimenez
  3. Jason Marquis
  4. Greg Smith
  5. Jason Hirsh

 

cashman_brian031217_getty.jpg

After making these lists
and seeing this
thread, I’ve been inspired to decide which rotation I think is the best.  As I’ve said earlier, I think Cleveland has
the best starting pitching depth, but as far as the most effective starting
five goes, I’ll have to take the Yankees. 
No one in the MLB can match Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Pettitte, and
Chamberlain.  Plus New York has a bunch
of depth with Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Alfredo Aceves, Humberto Sanchez, Kei
Igawa all in Triple-A presumably.  The
best National League rotation is, in my opinion, the Chicago Cubs.  Of course, that all depends on how healthy
Rich Harden can stay.

wade.jpg

And as for the worst…I’d
pick the Astros.  Sure, the Jays or
Pirates may have worse team pitching statistics in 2009, but Houston has
absolutely no depth and a weak collection of pitching prospects (and position
prospects for that matter).

 

As always, let me know
what you think.  In my next entry I’ll
continue my pre-season predictions/picks with giving my personal predictions
for all the major awards.

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Them Pirates…..

    Dave Littlefield, former GM of the pitiful Pirates, is widely held responsible for the woe that is currently the Pirates.  Rajai Davis to the Giants for Matt(I’ll make you forget the overatedness of Jason Giambi when you see my salary) Morris?  Yeah that trade was bad.  Drafting Brian Bullington first overall instead of B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, or Jeff Franceour.  Even worse.  But hey, the Pirates aren’t completely screwed (see Giants).  In fact the Pirates actually have a nice problem in their outfield situation. 
   
    From a quick glance the Pirates outfield looks set for a while.  With Bay(29) in left, McLouth(26) in center, and Nady(29) in right, the Bucs look like their outfield is the one component of their team which they don’t need to focus on.  But in fact the outfield situation is probably the area of the Pirates Neil Huntington (GM of Pirates) needs to focus on the most.  The Pirates have Andrew McCutchen and Steven Pearce in AAA. 
   
    The case with Andrew McCutchen(pictured left)is simple, next year he will be the starting center fielder in Pittsburgh.  3zARcaIW.jpgSteven Pearce is a bit more difficult to predict because he has the ability to play left field, right field, and first base.  Obviously, all three of those positions are already occupied well in Pittsburgh by Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Adam LaRoche respectively.  Let me first start off by saying, although it doesn’t mean absolutely anything, the Adam LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez trade was horrible.  Adam LaRoche.jpgMike Gonzalez was, if not the best, one of the best closers in baseball, and why Bobby Cox put Bob Wickman in the closer spot over Gonzalez is another story.  Adam LaRoche for a top-notch closer?  Perhaps the Pirates could trade away LaRoche for a shortstop or third baseman. 
   
    In fact if I was GM, I would have traded Freddy Sanchez to the Rockies during the off season and gotten Ian Stewart(Third baseman) and Taylor Buchholz(reliever).  But that’s not going to happen, because #1. Freddy Sanchez.jpgFreddy Sanchez is horrible this year(.262 OBP, ugh) and #2. Buchholz has been dominant this year, even better than I thought he was going to be. In case you’re wondering, yes, I did, in my mind, set up this trade during the off season.  I’m not making it up right now because Sanchez is sucking and Buchholz is awesome.  Anyway let’s stop talking about if I was GM and start talking about what Neil Huntington should do. 
   
    I can’t lie to myself, Steven Pearce has been a huge disappointment in Indianapolis(AAA).  His numbers aren’t that bad, but (as I’m sure Steven knows) he really needs to play like he did last year in order for Huntington to consider either trading him or Bay, McLouth or Nady away.  Steven Pearce.jpgPearce had a good September call up last year, and really just blasted his way through every level of the Pirates from A+ to The Show.  A .321 OBP and nine home runs through 71 games in Triple A is not going to cut it.  You wonder why?  Not only was Steven Pearce good in Indianapolis last season, but he was good in Majors, and the only reason he didn’t start in the majors this year is, unfortunately for him, the outfield is the strongest component of the Bucs.  

    Nate McLouth in a perfect world is a right fielder.  A starting right fielder?  For now, I say yes but that could change.  The high OBP isn’t as surprising as the power numbers
 to me.  Nate McLouth.jpgHis OBP has been increasing every year as he becomes a more polished player.  The power perplexes me, and that isn’t a good thing.  Usually when something is perplexing to many people it isn’t a good sign for the future.  Or could it be as simple as playing everyday, Nate’s swing has developed and that is the reason why the once 14-homers-a-season guy has turned into a 32-homers-a-season guy. 

    If the Pirates should have Andrew McCutchen in center and Nate McLouth in right, then that leaves the question of who do you trade?  Jason Bay or Xavier Nady?  It would have been a no brainer a couple of years ago, but both are 29 years old and Bay maybe has more of an upside but Bay’s been playing worse every year since 2005.  Nady since becoming a full fledged starter since being traded for Oliver Perez, has been getting considerably better.  A GM’s gut may still tell him to take Bay, but let’s just compare stats since 2004.

Jason bay.jpg

Jason Bay    Age:29      2008 Salary: $6 million
                          G       AB        H       HR   RBI      BB      SO     SB   CS  OBP     SLG

2004 PIT 120 411 116 26 82 41 129 4 6 .358 .550
2005 PIT 162 599 183 32 101 95 142 21 1 .402 .559
2006 PIT 159 570 163 35 109 102 156 11 2 .396 .532
2007 PIT 145 538 133 21 84 59 141 4 1 .327 .418
2008 PIT 74 269 76 15 40 49 60 6 0 .393 .524

5teURu24.jpg

Xavier Nady   Age:29      2008 Salary: $3,350,000

Year   Team       G      AB      H      HR      RBI      BB   SO   SB   CS   .OBP   .SLG
2004   SD          34     77       19      3         9         5      13    0      0     .321     .416
2005   SD          124   326      99     13       43        22    67    2      1     .301     .439
2006   NYM-PIT 130   468     131     17       63        30    85    3      3     .337     .453
2007   PIT         125   431     120     20       72        23   101   3      1     .330      .476 
2008   PIT          66    245      77      10      49         21   43     1      0     .376     .510

     Salary is another interesting factor in this discussion.  There is no clear cut answer on who’s the better player, so you may just take the guy who makes over $2 million less.  If I’m the GM of another team looking to make a deal with Pittsburgh, I would rather acquire Nady, even if I thought Bay was the slightly better player, which I do. 

    Another issue the Pirates need to address is why they are not trading away Jack Wilson(30) or Freddy Sanchez(30).  Would you be surprised if I told you that Freddy Sanchez is older than Jack Wilson?  Sanchez, in fact, is eight days older than Jack Wilson.  Sanchez has created the illusion of being younger than he is, by having a breakout year (2006) at the age of 28, which is basically the prime of your career.  But, since most people had not heard of him, it gave the impression that he was an up-and-coming ballplayer.  I understand the reasoning of them not planning on trading away Adam LaRoche, because he is still a young position player and would be good fit for that team if played the way he did in 2006.   On the other hand both Wilson and Sanchez are getting past their prime, but still could be considered starting players.  One would say that since third base, shortstop, and second base are weakest positions throughout the Pirates organization, you can’t trade away the starters at your major league level, but do you seriously care when you’re in the Pirates situation?  You’re not winning with Jack Wilson or Freddy Sanchez so trade them away before Sanchez proves he’s a bust and before teams start seeing Jack Wilson as a poor man’s old Omar Vizquel.  Wilson could create interests with numerous teams like the Rays(Jason Bartlett is not a starter), Orioles(neither is Alex Cintron), or Cardinals(we’ll see how good Brendan Ryan really is). Jack Wilson.jpgSome teams are seeing Jack Wilson as a great utility guy and other teams are thinking of him as a starting shortstop. In any case, I think it would be intriguing to let Josh Wilson be the starting shortstop if Jack Wilson somehow moves.  Josh was a guy thought to be a true hitter coming up with the Rockies, but has been blocked by others everywhere he has gone and has struggled in a utility position.  In AAA so far he has a .358 .OBP with four dingers in 68 games. 

    Before the season started, Sanchez’s value would have been much higher, but come on Sanchez’s season has been horrendous and I am not really sure how much the Pirates could get for him, but Sanchez needs to be traded at this year’s deadline, period.  Teams like the White Sox, Cubs, or Indians could trade away some good middle infield prospect away.  Just throwing out some feasible trades in my mind.  Freddy Sanchez to the Cubs for Michael Wuertz, Ronny Cedeno and/or Marquez Smith.  Freddy Sanchez to the Indians for Jensen Lewis, and Wes Hodges(the Indians probably won’t let Hodges get away, so perhaps the Pirates could get Jared Goedert and Josh Rodriguez instead).

    Well, I’m finally done venting, and frankly after using three days to write this post, I’m sick of the Pirates.  I’m done writing about them, unless of course they actually do trade somebody in which case I will analyze it right here on District Boy.  When people say that I’m only thirteen and am spending so much time on studying baseball and I’m obsessed with it, I think this is what they mean(spending three days writing about a team that I don’t care the least about, yet do it anyway because, well…………

    I think I’ll cover the Giants next entry.  (Warning – If you are a fan of Brian Sabean stay away from this blog for at least a week)